Will the Space Race Move East?

By JACQUELINE NEWMYER

Published: October 20, 2003

WASHINGTON -- Something that went up in the first Chinese manned
spacecraft did not come down. The Shenzhou 5, which orbited Earth 14
times last week, left behind an orbital module carrying equipment
capable of capturing images of the earth's surface. This satellite could
be used for many purposes, including the monitoring of United States
military forces.

Of course, China, like the United States and Russia, has been launching
similar reconnaissance satellites for decades. And Lt. Col. Yang Liwei
and the Chinese space program deserve the accolades they have received
for the successful voyage of the Shenzhou 5. But while the United States
properly extends its congratulations ? and entertains talk of three-way
cooperation with Russia and the newest member of the space club ? it
should also be wary of China's intentions.

Some analysts have played down the significance of the Shenzhou 5's
flight, writing it off as a 40-years-late replication of American and
Soviet accomplishments. The Chinese used foreign technology and hardware
and benefited from advances that render the challenge of sending a man
into space easier than it was in the 1960's.

But China has already announced that a future mission will try to dock ?
presumably on a previously released orbital module or another
spacecraft. A moon walk is expected within a decade. The construction of
a space station is also on the agenda.

If China is able to meet these goals, or even make reasonable progress
toward them, it will have proved that its membership in the "space club"
is no fluke. China's efforts to put a man into space, the Pentagon said
in a report last August, "almost certainly will contribute to improved
military space systems in the 2010-2020 time frame."

Beijing's foray into space should not come as a surprise. As the Soviet
Union's pioneering example teaches, Communist governments are willing to
invest heavily in assets that can be centrally controlled. In the
autocrat's calculus, rocketing a man into orbit is less risky than
sending a pilot up in an armed fighter or bomber plane, because while a
pilot might defect or turn his weapons toward home, an astronaut has
little to no control over the vessel in which he travels.

The Chinese government's obsession with control extends beyond the
mission itself: it also limits information about the program. Can anyone
imagine the United States government training 14 astronauts over at
least five years and not identifying the lone voyager until the week of
his launching? What would be the outcry if NASA misled the country about
where the spacecraft would land, disclosing the true location of the
site only shortly before its first use?

The contrast is stark between the relatively open space program of the
United States ? it is cooperating with 15 countries on the International
Space Station ? and China's clandestine approach.

Sending a man into space is a notable achievement. But this feat should
not obscure the important political differences that continue to divide
China from the United States. Amid calls for joint scientific or
commercial ventures in space to improve Chinese-American relations,
officials in Washington should consider what kind of cooperation is
appropriate with a regime that does not share the United States'
tradition of freedom and respect for human rights.

Jacqueline Newmyer is a graduate student in politics at Oxford University.

Copyright 2003 The New York Times Company