The Next Space Race: China Heads to the Stars
By JIM YARDLEY and WILLIAM J. BROAD

Published: January 22, 2004

[B]EIJING, Jan. 21 - When President Bush outlined his ambitious
vision last week for a new era of space exploration, one country
in particular was on his mind as he extended an invitation for
international cooperation: China. 

In the last year, China succeeded in becoming only the third
nation to put an astronaut into orbit, definitively signaling
that it intends to break into the front rank of space explorers. 
  
The Chinese plan to send more astronauts into space next year, to
launch a Moon probe within three years, and are aiming to land an
unmanned vehicle on the Moon by 2010, a half decade before the
deadline President Bush set for the next Americans to arrive
there.

The United States and China now stand at a critical juncture,
between cooperation or competition, in what could be a costly and
dangerous new space race that extends even beyond China. 

Mr. Bush was deliberately reaching out to the Chinese, a senior
administration official in Washington said. "The reference to
international cooperation was not a throwaway line," said the
official of the speech on Jan. 14. "It was an invitation. The
president drew a day-night contrast. This is not the cold war."

But it could be. The Chinese are not alone in this new push to
harness the power and prestige of space, which is fast becoming a
necessary stop, like mastery of the atom, for aspiring global
powers.

Nations like Brazil and India are taking ever wider steps to make
sure that they are not left behind in the new space race,
intensifying the pace of exploration by the developing world. 

Joan Johnson-Freese, an expert the Chinese space program at the
Naval War College in Rhode Island, said the Bush administration
had no choice but to respond to China's recent successes with a
space initiative.

"The success allowed China to reach out to other countries and
they've been responding favorably, so we could not do nothing,"
she said in an interview. "While a space race is not a foregone
conclusion, it is a possibility." 

She added that the United States now had a window of opportunity
for concord that might not last long. "Cooperation is the best
position for the U.S. and the future," she said. "An inclusive
vision will give the U.S. an opportunity to assume the mantle of
leadership on a mission that could inspire the world." 

The greatest concern is the militarization of space, using
space-based weapons and satellites to extend the reach of nations
or potential terrorists, and allowing more extensive and
widespread intelligence gathering than ever before.

Such scenarios are central to the mistrust between the United
States and China. Many American analysts note that China's manned
space program falls under a wing of the People's Liberation Army,
and suspect that China's primary ambitions in space are military.

Some analysts contend that China's manned space vehicle is
specifically designed for potential military uses. The Chinese,
meanwhile, saw the technological prowess displayed by the United
States in Afghanistan and Iraq, and are now emphasizing the
importance of "information warfare," with the need for a presence
in space.

In October, People's Liberation Army Daily said outer space would
become a "sphere of warfare" because space-based satellite
technologies were critical for a swift, modern military.

"It's clear that the Chinese are worried about the U.S.
domination of space, and that the U.S. considers China as a
potential competitor," said Adam Segal, a senior China expert at
the Council on Foreign Relations. "It's probably a good time to
try to talk about these things since we haven't moved very far
along in any of these plans."

President Bush never mentioned China by name in his address, but
the administration official said that by not limiting his call to
Europe and Russia he was implicitly reaching out to Beijing.
Asked for comment on playing a possible role in Mr. Bush's
Moon-Mars endeavor, China's Foreign Ministry answered in broad
terms, noting that China is committed to collaborating with other
space-faring nations, including the United States. 

But the Foreign Ministry also hinted at past frustrations, noting
that the Chinese space program has already sought - without
success - a stronger relationship with NASA. Since 2002, the
ministry noted, the two sides have been talking about a meeting
of the heads of the two space agencies. 

"We hope the realization of this meeting will present an
opportunity for developing Chinese-American cooperation in the
space sphere," the ministry said in a written statement.
  
Brian Harvey, author of the forthcoming "China's Space Program:
From Conception to Manned Space Flight," said the United States
had in the past excluded China on space issues, partly as
political retribution for the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown. In
one case, American officials denied visas for more than 50
Chinese officials to attend an annual meeting of the World
International Space Congress held in Houston.

"The Chinese have felt very isolated," Mr. Harvey said. 

Publicly, both American and Chinese officials now say the
relationship is growing closer, even as frictions continue,
particularly over Taiwan. Notably, the Chinese allowed Gen.
Richard B. Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to tour
China's top-secret space command center in Beijing on the same
day as Mr. Bush's speech on space.

The visit was part of a larger trip intended to build closer
military ties. General Myers also met with his Chinese
counterpart, Gen. Liang Guanglie, and later conferred with Jiang
Zemin, the former Chinese president who remains in charge of the
Chinese military.

At a news briefing, in a gesture to smooth tensions, General
Myers was careful to praise China's successful launch last
October. "Obviously, this is a big step for the Chinese space
program, and we congratulate them," he said. 

China has taken other important steps as well. It recently teamed
up with the European Union on a new global satellite navigation
system. In a different project, China and the European Space
Agency launched a research satellite last month to study the
Earth's magnetic fields, China's first such collaboration with
developed countries, state news media reported. China has also
joined with Brazil on satellite launches. 

In all, China plans to launch 10 satellites this year, and a
total of 30 by 2005; it currently has 16 in orbit. The satellites
have scientific, commercial and military applications. 

More bold are China's plans to build on the success of last
year's Shenzhou 5 space orbit, and eventually to land on the
Moon. Officials say next year's Shenzhou 6 mission is expected to
carry two astronauts on a five- to seven-day space journey.

Efforts to reach the Moon are beginning in earnest this year, and
some experts in the United States speak ominously of a "Red Moon"
- the possibility that China might one day launch military
astronauts into space with the aim of setting up a Communist
lunar base. 

Last March, Luan Enjie, director of the China National Aerospace
Administration, described the Moon as "the focal point wherein
future aerospace powers contend for strategic resources."

But Mr. Luan and other Chinese officials say China's lunar
ambitions are wholly peaceful. Mr. Luan suggested that one of
China's primary motivations for reaching the Moon was possible
economic exploitation. He told People's Daily, the Communist
Party's official newspaper, that China was also interested in
developing lunar energy resources, like helium-3, a rare form of
the element that scientists say could power advanced reactors on
Earth.

In an interview this week, Ouyang Ziyuan, chief scientist for
China's Moon program, said the program was part of China's larger
efforts to become a leader in space. 

"China has made a lot of achievements in satellite applications
and manned space flight, but we haven't done much in deep space
exploration," he said. "We need a breakthrough in this field to
fill the gap. As a starting step, the Moon program is very
necessary." 

United States government documents, like the Air Force's Space
Operations Doctrine and its Space Command's Strategic Master
Plan, talk much about maintaining "space superiority" near Earth
and even about using weapons in orbit. But they remain silent
about the Moon.

"There is nothing in Air Force planning for the Moon," said
Theresa Hitchens, vice president of the Center for Defense
Information, a private research group in Washington.

Still, some analysts believe the Moon is part of a larger
American military plan and interpreted Mr. Bush's speech as
unilateral in emphasis, with echoes of the cold war.

"The Moon is a beachhead," said Alice Slater, director of the
Global Resource Action Center for the Environment, a private
group in New York. "It's the high ground from which they want to
control space" she said of the Bush administration.

Bush administration officials say they are not worried that
China's space achievements will undermine American prestige and
leadership. Throwing open the door to Beijing on the Moon-Mars
initiative, they added, stands to enhance American influence.

But the real potential for cooperation, the senior official said,
"we're going to have to determine over time as China's activities
unfold." 

In the jubilant aftermath of the Shenzhou 5 flight, Chinese
officials flirted with the notion of launching their own Mars
mission by 2020. But this month, officials said any timetable was
premature and that China was not yet far enough along to initiate
such a program. 

Meanwhile, the official Chinese news media have closely followed
the exploits of the American robotic Mars explorer, Spirit, as
have Chinese space officials.

"We have been always closely watching Mars exploration
activities," Mr. Luan, the top space administrator said on the
day Spirit landed. "We hope the U.S. mission will be a complete
success in the days to come."

(Jim Yardley reported from Beijing for this article and William J.
Broad from New York.)

Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company